Ethan Cypull

Climate change will impact Minnesota’s nature-based tourism industry, but details on how it will change remain absent.To address the knowledge gap, a modified Mieczkowski’s Tourism Climate Index (TCI) was applied at three Minnesota state parks to provide insight on potential visitation changes. Ideal summer tourism climate conditions were hypothesized to diminish. Data were collected for the 2019 summer climate at Sibley, Whitewater, and Jay Cooke State Parks and TCIs calculated. These ratings were compared to others calculated from three summer climate change scenarios for changing maximum temperature and precipitation: Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 2040-2059, RCP 4.5 2080-2099, and RCP 8.5 2080-2099. In contrast to the hypothesis, findings indicate park TCIs become more ideal, with notable exceptions: Sibley is projected to experience a drop from “Very Good” to “Good” in July under all climate scenarios; Whitewater drops from “Excellent” to “Good” under both RCP 4.5 scenarios and to “Very Good” under RCP 8.5 2080-2099. Based on these findings, we would anticipate summer visitation to increase at these parks based on more ideal precipitation and maximum temperature for tourism. Future research and TCI modifications can integrate societal and ecological effects that climate change might have on nature-based tourism.