Allison Graper

Species distribution modeling (SDM) under the conditions of climate change has become a popular area of research for ecologists and plant biologists. SDM is recognized as exploiting occurrence data and environmental conditions with the goal of describing the geographic locations that provide an optimal environment for a species to inhabit. In the case of common hop (Humulus lupulus) and Japanese hop (H.  japonicus) SDM modeling can prove practical when used in context of the brewing industry (H. lupulus) and invasive spread (H. japonicus). Ecological niche models were built for both H. lupulus and H. japonicus under current and future climate scenarios. Climate prediction models allow estimation of the future distribution of both species in both optimistic and pessimistic cases in the years 2050 and 2070. Future climate models predict that H. japonicus would retain a presence in eastern United States while gaining suitable habitats in the north and losing presence along the southwestern edge of the population's current occurrence. In the case of the Midwest and Minnesota, all future models predict an increased suitability for H. japonicus  in the region. H. lupulus is predicted in all climate models to gain suitable environments in the northern United States and into Canada while the Pacific Northwest and southern United States is expected to no longer be suitable for H. lupulus. The increased presence of H. japonicus may introduce interspecific competition for a suitable environment and also increase pathogen spread to commercially grown H. lupulus in shared regions.